"Crude Steel Production Cuts" Intensify, Iron Ore Futures Prices Plunge [SMM Commentary]

Published: Mar 12, 2025 17:02

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Today, iron ore fluctuated upward in the morning but plunged significantly in the afternoon. The most-traded I2505 contract finally closed at 769.5 yuan/mt, down 0.32% for the day. Traders showed less enthusiasm for selling; steel mills remained cautious and had average purchase willingness; the market transaction atmosphere was sluggish. Transaction prices dropped by 2-3 yuan/mt compared to yesterday. According to the SMM survey, as of March 12, the operating rate of blast furnaces at 242 steel mills surveyed by SMM was 86.61%, up 0.28 percentage points MoM. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 87.76%, up 0.15 percentage points MoM. The daily average pig iron production of the sample steel mills was 2.3719 million mt, up 7,900 mt MoM. Moreover, the increase in pig iron production is expected to be larger next week. Ore prices were supported and fluctuated upward. In the short term, continuous news weighed on ore prices, increasing resistance for iron ore prices to rise, which may fluctuate at low levels in the near term.

Iron ore futures fluctuated upward in the morning but plunged significantly in the afternoon. The most-traded I2505 contract finally closed at 769.5 yuan/mt, down 0.32% for the day. Traders showed less enthusiasm for selling; steel mills remained cautious with moderate purchase willingness; and the market transaction atmosphere was sluggish. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction prices of PB fines were around 770-773 yuan/mt, down 2-3 yuan/mt from yesterday. In Tangshan, PB fines were traded at 775-778 yuan/mt, also down 2-3 yuan/mt from yesterday. According to the SMM survey, as of March 12, the operating rate of blast furnaces at 242 steel mills surveyed by SMM was 86.61%, up 0.28 percentage points WoW. The capacity utilisation rate of blast furnaces was 87.76%, up 0.15 percentage points WoW. The daily average pig iron production of the sampled steel mills was 2.3719 million mt, up 7,900 mt WoW. Moreover, pig iron production is expected to increase further next week. Ore prices were supported and fluctuated upward. However, in the afternoon, news of crude steel production cuts resurfaced, causing iron ore prices to weaken. In the short term, such news continues to weigh on ore prices, increasing resistance to upward movement, and iron ore prices may fluctuate at low levels in the near term.

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